Poland braces for 'critical' months amid reports of Russian provocation plot

Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said the country is preparing for various scenarios, warning that the coming months could be 'critical' with regard to the threat from Russia. His remarks come in response to media reports citing US intelligence that Moscow is planning an armed provocation in Poland to test NATO's resolve.

'I don't mean to scare anyone but the coming months may truly be critical, also due to the changing nature of the war. These concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic states,' Tusk told reporters on Friday.

Polish news outlet Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki said the US had issued several warnings to Warsaw about a plot to attack the country. The White House and US State Department did not respond to requests for comment from the BBC.

According to the reports, also published by the Telegraph in the UK, Polish infrastructure could be targeted by missiles or drones, or soldiers could be sent into the NATO state. The alleged aim would be to pressure Ukraine's western allies into suspending aid to the country as it continues to fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, launched in 2022.

Tusk emphasised that Poland is not ignoring the threats but remains calm. 'Let's not be afraid, we are preparing for various situations, but we cannot ignore them... We are aware of the threats, thanks to information from our allies,' he said.

President Nawrocki is set to attend a NATO summit in Turkey next week alongside leaders of other alliance members. Secretary General Mark Rutte has said the gathering will demonstrate that European countries are heeding US President Donald Trump's longstanding calls to increase defence spending. Leaders are also expected to pledge continued funding for weapons for Ukraine.

Tusk told the Financial Times in April that Russia could attack a NATO member state within 'months'. In late June, Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski told CBS News that he would not rule out a Russian 'false flag' operation in the next two years to justify an attack on a NATO state.

Baltic states have previously expressed concern over their vulnerability to a Russian attack. Latvian media reported in June that its intelligence services had warned Moscow was planning military provocations in the region, or in Poland. Lithuania's ambassador to NATO said on Thursday that Russia was more likely to resort to hybrid warfare—such as missile or drone incursions—than a conventional military attack, according to the country's public service broadcaster LRT.

NATO's Article 5 states that an armed attack against one member will be considered an attack against all, for which they will come to each other's defence.