Kerala researchers urge overhaul of disaster strategy as extreme rains rise
Researchers at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) at the Cochin University of Science and Technology have recommended a fundamental shift in Kerala’s disaster management strategy, citing the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events in the state’s climate scenario.
According to the researchers, Kerala is emerging as a hotspot for mesoscale mini cloudbursts due to changing rainfall patterns and cloud structures. These cloudbursts are extreme, highly localised downpours that mostly exceed 100 mm in an hour, spanning tens to hundreds of square kilometres.
S. Abhilash, Director of ACARR, said that these short-duration extreme events are driven by strong convection and orographic lifting, which generate rapid runoff and flash floods. He added that land degradation and deforestation further aggravate the impacts, making the state vulnerable to mesoscale mini cloudburst-induced disasters.
Abhilash stressed the need for improved impact-based forecasting, real-time prediction systems, and climate-informed policy planning to safeguard coastal populations and marine-dependent livelihoods, given the growing unpredictability of cyclone behaviour. He noted that mesoscale cloudbursts occurring under favourable ocean-atmospheric conditions may leave vast areas vulnerable to flash floods and landslides at any time during the monsoon season.
He called for an urgent shift towards participatory and localised disaster management frameworks, arguing that centralised approaches are insufficient in view of the state’s rapidly changing climate and terrain fragility. "A bottom-up, people-centred, multi-hazard early warning system, integrating local knowledge, scientific monitoring, ecosystem-based adaptation, and decentralised governance, is essential," he said. He emphasised that continuous, multi-scale atmospheric monitoring and region-specific policy interventions are critical to reduce fatalities, protect livelihoods, and enhance resilience against increasingly localised extreme weather events.
The researchers indicated that a warming Arabian Sea and a warmer atmosphere are increasing the moisture available to the monsoon system, creating favourable conditions for more intense rainfall. Ajil Kottayil, a scientist at ACARR, explained that deep mesoscale convective systems and towering convective clouds can develop rapidly, producing exceptionally heavy rainfall over small areas within hours. This leads to significant spatial variability, with neighbouring districts or even nearby river basins experiencing very different rainfall amounts. "This increasing spatial variability makes it challenging to accurately predict the exact location, timing, and intensity of extreme rainfall, even with improvements in weather models and observation systems," he said.
A mesoscale convective system is a complex of thunderstorms that becomes organised on a scale larger than individual thunderstorms but smaller than continental cyclones, typically persisting for several hours. Towering convective clouds are massive vertical clouds that often bring heavy rain showers or grow into thunderstorms.
Kottayil said the challenge before Kerala is not to stop extreme rainfall, but to build the capacity to anticipate it, prepare for it, and minimise its consequences. He pointed out that the state’s greatest advantage lies in its strong institutional framework for disaster management and climate research. "The challenge is therefore not the lack of expertise or institutions, but the need for stronger integration of these capabilities," he added.
He recommended setting up a permanent multidisciplinary expert panel involving climate scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists, geologists, engineers, disaster managers, and policymakers. Such a platform would provide coordinated scientific guidance before, during, and after extreme weather events. "It would help bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and operational decision-making," he said.
