Kerala floods: Experts say missing long-term mitigation plans worsen impact
The Kerala government, facing criticism over its response to recent rain-related calamities, has attributed the delays to a late weather warning from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, experts argue that the recurring destruction also highlights the absence of a long-term strategy to deal with increasingly frequent extreme rainfall events.
Speaking to the media, the Chief Minister said the flooding was triggered by extremely heavy rainfall, with some areas recording over 350 mm in a short period. He noted that the IMD’s alert about an extreme rainfall event was received only around midnight, leaving authorities little time to evacuate vulnerable populations on a large scale.
Yet, the IMD’s extensive dataset — spanning 125 years of rainfall records from 110 weather stations in Kerala between 1901 and 2025 — offers a detailed picture of the State’s most disaster-prone regions. Using machine learning and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, weather scientists have developed a rainfall vulnerability map that identifies areas susceptible to extreme precipitation.
The map divides the State into colour-coded zones based on rainfall intensity. Red zones have repeatedly experienced extreme rainfall over the past century, while orange areas receive heavy but slightly lower rainfall. Green, blue, and light blue represent progressively lower rainfall categories. Many parts of north Kerala, as well as Idukki and Pathanamthitta districts, especially along the Western Ghats, fall under the high-risk categories.
Recent calamities — including the flooding in Idukki, Pathanamthitta, and Kottayam, and the debris slip in Wayanad last month that killed eight people — occurred in areas classified as red zones. Weather experts say these regions become particularly vulnerable when the offshore trough extends up to Kerala along the west coast. Their geographical features, combined with monsoon dynamics, make them prone to heavy and very heavy rainfall, and the State need not wait for upgraded alerts before initiating preparedness measures.
Geologist and disaster management expert Thara K.G. said rainfall warnings are only part of disaster preparedness. “Kerala’s biggest challenge is the lack of a comprehensive long-term mitigation strategy,” she said. “The State cannot evacuate an entire population based solely on rainfall alerts. What is missing is a long-term plan to reduce the impact of extreme weather events, and this is further complicated by ineffective land-use planning.”
A senior official from the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority acknowledged that implementing major policy reforms in a densely populated State is difficult. Measures like enforcing land-use regulations or cleaning rivers and waterbodies of accumulated silt often face significant resistance. “Strong policy-level intervention is essential to bring about meaningful reforms in this sector,” the official said.
As Kerala continues to experience extreme weather events, experts stress that preparedness must go beyond immediate alerts. A durable approach would involve integrating historical rainfall data into urban planning, strengthening infrastructure, and adopting sustainable land-use policies to mitigate the impact of future calamities.
