China proceeds with Brahmaputra dam project amid ecological concerns
China is going ahead with its massive hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, known in India as the Brahmaputra, despite fresh worries triggered by a glacial collapse along the Nepal-China border earlier this year. The project, located in a seismically active region of Tibet near the Indian border, has been designated as a priority in China's 15th Five-Year Plan for renewable energy, released on July 23, 2026.
The plan explicitly called for advancing the construction of major projects, including the Yarlung Zangbo Lower Reaches Hydropower Project. Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing visited Nyingchi in Tibet in April 2027 to underscore the project's importance. State media quoted him as saying, "We must shoulder the principal responsibility for project building and build this landmark mega project of the new era." He added that the government would "put quality first, safety as the foundation, strictly enforce construction standards and ecological-environmental-protection requirements, and keep construction progress subordinate to quality and safety."
The foundation stone for the project was laid in July 2025 by Premier Li Qiang, who described it as "the project of the century." The total investment is announced at 1.2 trillion yuan (around ₹14 lakh crore), with plans to build five power stations. Since then, limited public information has been available, though the recent visit by Mr. Zhang revealed that a new state-run entity, China Yajiang Group, has been established to manage the entire project.
China already operates a dam on the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo at Zangmu. In early 2027, state media praised the dam for supplying nearly 26 percent of electricity demand in Tibet, detailing a specialised "fishway" designed to help fish move between upstream and downstream sections. A "final acceptance meeting" for Zangmu was held in June 2027, declaring that the dam, which began construction in 2010, had generated 22.2 billion kilowatt-hours of energy. This was reported as equivalent to saving approximately 7.4 million tonnes of standard coal and cutting carbon dioxide emissions by around 22.2 million tonnes.
The new project is located near the "great bend" of the Yarlung Zangbo, where the river's course turns sharply towards India. Its energy generation is expected to far exceed that of the Zangmu dam. While no official projections have been released, independent analysts estimate an installed capacity of 60 gigawatts and annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which would be more than three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam.
Described as a "run-of-the-river" project, the dam will also involve constructing a reservoir. According to an analysis published by Shanghai-based energy analyst David Fishman, the reservoir is likely to be located near the town of Mainling, upstream of Nyingchi. He wrote that water would be diverted at the top of the great bend into a 40-kilometre-long tunnel, powering five turbines of 12 gigawatts each before rejoining the river. This analysis, published on his Substack page "Crossing the River," is based on reports of relocations in the area.
India has expressed concerns about the project, especially regarding how much water will be stored in the reservoir and how the tunnel will affect downstream flows. Broader ecological impacts are also a worry. The lack of authoritative information from the Chinese side has made it difficult for India to assess the potential consequences. The project remains a delicate matter in bilateral relations, given the river's significance for millions of people downstream.
