Rainfall emerges as key factor in elephant presence across southern Western Ghats, study finds

A new study by the Centre for Wildlife Studies (CWS) has identified rainfall as the strongest environmental factor linked to reported elephant occurrence in the southern Western Ghats region spanning Karnataka and Kerala. The research, titled 'Integrating Ecological Modelling and Local Knowledge to Understand Elephant Occurrence and Human-Elephant Interactions in the Southern Western Ghats', aims to predict where humans and Asian elephants are most likely to overlap and how that overlap may shift by 2030.

Published recently, the study involved interviews with 507 community residents in 2022 from villages surrounding the Bandipur and Nagarahole National Parks in Karnataka, and the Palakkad and Mannarkkad forest divisions in Kerala. Researchers combined ecological modelling with local knowledge to understand patterns of elephant movement and human-elephant interactions.

Rainfall emerged as the single strongest environmental factor linked to reported elephant occurrence in both states. The relationships were often complex rather than simple linear patterns, the CWS said. Human land use also played a role, but with nuanced effects. In Karnataka, areas of human settlement were positively associated with reported elephant presence, suggesting elephants tolerate some human activity but may retreat beyond a certain threshold.

Land-cover mapping between 2012 and 2022 revealed significant changes: in Karnataka, human settlement area increased by about 31%, while dense vegetation declined slightly; in Kerala, settlements grew by roughly 16%. Projecting these trends to 2030, modelled patterns of elephant occurrence became more fragmented and harder to predict. In Kerala, proximity to protected areas was strongly linked to where elephants were likely to occur.

The study highlighted the deep knowledge of local communities in understanding elephant movement and behaviour changes. Simran Prasad, lead author and postdoctoral fellow at CWS, stated: 'As these landscapes continue to change, the challenge is not just predicting where elephants will go, but ensuring that people and elephants can continue to share these spaces safely, for generations to come.'

The research underscores the importance of integrating scientific data with traditional knowledge to inform conservation strategies and mitigate human-elephant conflict in a changing environment.