Monsoon Deficit at 43%: IMD Predicts Over 10% Seasonal Shortfall Amid El Niño

New Delhi: India's monsoon rainfall deficit stood at 43% as of June 27, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The deficit is expected to reduce as the monsoon covers the entire country by mid-July, but the overall seasonal rainfall may still fall more than 10% below normal, the IMD has warned.

This year's monsoon is being influenced by El Niño, a climate phenomenon that typically suppresses rainfall over India. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can offset El Niño's impact, is expected to remain neutral during the monsoon season, offering no additional support. Last year, a strong positive IOD helped India achieve near-normal rainfall despite a strong El Niño.

Neutral IOD conditions mean that the monsoon will depend primarily on other climate drivers. The IMD has already predicted 'below normal' rainfall for the June-September season, with a 60% probability of a deficit exceeding 10%.

Several states have recorded severe deficits. Meghalaya reported the highest deficit at 82%, followed by Gujarat (79%), Manipur (71%), Chhattisgarh (68%), Jharkhand (66%), Maharashtra (59%), Uttar Pradesh (56%), Odisha (52%), and Bihar (50%). Madhya Pradesh, part of the 'monsoon core zone' crucial for rain-fed agriculture, has a 41% deficit. South Indian states, except Andhra Pradesh, have deficits above 30% despite being covered by the monsoon for weeks.

Regional data shows the highest deficit in central India at 57%, followed by east and northeast India (44%), south peninsular India (30%), and northwest India (27%). The situation underscores the need for close monitoring and adaptive measures in agriculture and water management.