Monsoon Advances: Red Alert for North Bengal, Delhi and Mumbai Brace for Rain as El Niño Strengthens

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for several districts in North Bengal as the southwest monsoon advances, while Delhi and Mumbai are expected to receive rainfall in the coming days. Despite strengthening El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean, the monsoon is progressing steadily across the country.

The IMD’s extended range forecast from June 26 to July 8 indicates favourable conditions for the monsoon to advance into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh in the next week. By early July, the system is expected to cover remaining parts of these states and make further inroads into Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, and parts of Jammu and Kashmir.

El Niño conditions, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific, have now fully coupled with the atmosphere, the IMD said. Forecasts suggest that El Niño will strengthen further during the monsoon season, which typically suppresses rainfall over India. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral and is expected to stay so throughout the season.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical weather pattern that influences rainfall, is currently in a phase conducive to stronger thunderstorms over the north Bay of Bengal, potentially boosting rainfall during the first week of the forecast period.

For the week ending July 1, light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of central, eastern, and peninsular India, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, and the Northeast. Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds are likely over several regions, including parts of northwest India. Dust storms may occur over isolated pockets of the northwest plains.

While rainfall is expected to be below normal over many parts of the country in the first week, southern peninsular India and the Northeast may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. From July 2 to July 8, rain is expected to become more widespread as the low-level Somali Jet strengthens and monsoon systems develop over the Bay of Bengal. Western disturbances may also bring rain to the western Himalayan region.

North Bengal is expected to experience intense rainfall during the upcoming wet spell. The IMD has issued a red alert for Jalpaiguri district from June 28 to June 30, with forecasts of extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 20 cm at isolated places. An orange alert is in place for June 26 and 27. Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Alipurduar, and Cooch Behar are also under red alert for the same period, warning of widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds. North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur, and Malda are under orange alert for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. The weather office has cautioned that intense rainfall could lead to waterlogging, flash floods in low-lying areas, and landslides in the Himalayan districts.

In Kolkata, heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds on Thursday caused waterlogging on several roads, disrupted traffic, and led to inconvenience at SSKM Hospital. The IMD continues to monitor the situation.