India-China Talks: Focus on Stability, Not Settlement, Says Chinese Scholar

New Delhi: As National Security Advisor Ajit Doval prepares to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Tuesday, a leading Chinese scholar on South Asia has said both sides will prioritise institutionalising stability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) rather than seeking an immediate resolution of the boundary dispute.

Hu Shisheng, Director of the South Asia Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), told The Hindu that the structural differences between India and China have not disappeared, but the immediate focus is on preventing misunderstanding and miscalculation along the frontier.

“On the border, I would expect the immediate focus to be less on a dramatic settlement and more on institutionalising stability. The priority is to prevent misunderstanding and miscalculation along the LAC, strengthen military and diplomatic communication, and turn last year’s idea of an ‘early harvest’ into an operational process,” Mr. Hu said.

The Tuesday meeting will be the 25th round of Special Representatives (SRs) talks on the boundary question. The discussions come ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to India for the BRICS Summit in New Delhi next month, which would be his first visit to India in seven years.

Mr. Doval and Mr. Wang, who is also a member of the Politburo, will take stock of bilateral relations and review progress on implementing the agreements reached at their last meeting in October 2024.

At the 24th round, the two sides agreed to establish an Expert Group under the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border affairs to explore an “early harvest” on boundary delimitation. According to Mr. Hu, the WMCC meetings this year have discussed delimitation, but there is no public indication of a concrete sectoral agreement yet.

“The realistic next step would be to operationalise the Expert Group, agree on its mandate, timetable and criteria for identifying relatively less contentious sectors, rather than expect an immediate breakthrough on the boundary itself,” he said.

The broader challenge, Mr. Hu said, is whether both countries “can work out a sustainable modus vivendi that avoids confrontation, keeps differences manageable, and preserves space for cooperation”.

The timing of Mr. Doval’s visit, just weeks before the BRICS Summit scheduled for September 12, adds significance to the talks. Mr. Xi is expected to attend the summit, and both sides have an incentive to ensure a stable border and a favourable political atmosphere for potential leader-level interaction.

Mr. Hu identified three immediate priorities: maintaining stability on the border, achieving “concrete and operational progress” on the early harvest outcomes, and creating favourable conditions for the BRICS Summit.

At the strategic level, he said the Doval-Wang meeting would help clear potential obstacles ahead of the summit and lay the groundwork for possible leader-level engagement. He also pointed to the need to coordinate the handover of the BRICS agenda from India to China, which takes over as chair next year.

The normalisation of India-China relations since the October 2024 meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi has been gradual and measured, a view shared in both capitals.

“As for the broader normalisation, I would describe it as strategic risk management rather than strategic realignment,” Mr. Hu said. “Recent difficulties in India-U.S. relations may give New Delhi greater incentives to diversify its strategic options, while the relative stabilisation of China-U.S. ties reduces some of the external pressure on China-India relations. But the structural differences between China and India have not disappeared. What we are seeing is an attempt to build a more stable form of engagement.”

The talks on Tuesday are expected to focus on operationalising the Expert Group mechanism and ensuring that the border remains calm ahead of the BRICS Summit. Diplomatic observers note that while a breakthrough on the boundary is not anticipated, both sides appear committed to preventing a repeat of the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and maintaining communication channels.