Europe’s Early Heat Wave Linked to Over 10,000 Excess Deaths

An exceptionally early and intense heat wave across Europe in late June has been associated with a sharp rise in deaths, with preliminary data indicating more than 10,000 excess deaths during the peak week. Researchers caution that the full toll may be higher as many heat-related fatalities are not formally recorded as such.

The European mortality monitoring hub EuroMOMO, which collects data from two dozen countries, estimated 14,260 excess deaths from all causes in the week ending 28 June, with over 12,000 among people aged 65 and older. This figure represents the difference between the observed number of deaths and the expected baseline. The preceding and following weeks recorded significantly lower numbers.

Lasse Vestergaard of Denmark’s Statens Serum Institut, which coordinates EuroMOMO, stated that the excess mortality is attributed to the heat wave because no other plausible explanation exists. He described a single week with such high excess deaths as 'highly unusual'. The highest rates were observed in France, Belgium and Germany.

National agencies have also reported heat-related deaths. Germany’s Robert Koch Institute attributed 6,830 deaths to heat up to early July, most among the elderly. The UK’s Met Office estimated 2,700 heat-related deaths in England and Wales during May and June heat waves. France’s public health authority reported at least 2,000 more deaths in the week of 22-28 June compared to the previous week. Spain’s Carlos III Health Institute attributed 937 deaths to excess heat in June.

The heat wave broke numerous records. Germany recorded its highest temperature ever at 41.7°C on 28 June. The UK set national records for May and June, with temperatures exceeding 35°C and 37°C respectively. France experienced its hottest days on 24 and 25 June, with the national thermal indicator reaching 30°C. Spain had its second-hottest June on record.

Climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave remains the deadliest, with an estimated 70,000 deaths. Experts warn that without adaptation and mitigation measures, such events will become more common and severe.