Climate Models Suggest Possible Strong El Niño in 2027, Scientists Caution on Uncertainty

Climate scientists are monitoring the tropical Pacific after a leading seasonal forecasting system indicated the possibility of a strong El Niño developing later this year and persisting into 2027. The projections come from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which combines outputs from multiple climate models to reduce individual biases.

The NMME's latest outlook for November-December-January 2027 suggests sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could rise more than 2°C above average, with some models showing warming exceeding 5°C in certain areas. If realised, this would rank among the strongest El Niño events ever recorded. Scientists define a strong El Niño when temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region are 1.5°C to 1.9°C above normal; anomalies above 2°C are considered very strong.

However, experts stress that these are early signals, not firm predictions. "The NMME forecasts are a useful early signal, but they are not definitive," said Prof. Anjal Prakash, public policy professor at FLAME University and an IPCC author. "A consistent warming signal across the central and eastern Pacific increases confidence that conditions may be moving toward El Niño. However, predictability declines significantly beyond a few months because of internal climate variability and uncertainties in ocean-atmosphere interactions."

Prakash said the projections should be viewed as an early warning rather than a prediction, urging preparedness in sectors such as agriculture, water resources, fisheries and disaster management. Raghu Murtugudde, Earth System Scientist and former professor at the University of Maryland and IIT Bombay, echoed this: "At this lead time, nobody can say a super El Niño is guaranteed. But when multiple models begin converging on a strong warming scenario, it becomes a signal worth monitoring closely."

Operational forecasters are also seeing signs of strengthening Pacific warming. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern and central Pacific are already around 1.5°C above normal, approaching levels associated with a strong El Niño. "El Niño conditions are likely to strengthen in the coming months," he said, noting that the Niño 3.4 region will be closely watched.

The emerging signal is being tracked by international centres, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which has indicated increasing odds of El Niño conditions. El Niño refers to periodic warming of equatorial Pacific waters, capable of altering global weather. In India, strong El Niño years have often been linked to weaker monsoons, prolonged dry spells and elevated heat stress, though the relationship is not always straightforward.

While the NMME projections are not definitive, the persistence of the warming signal across multiple model runs has drawn attention. Scientists emphasise that long-range forecasts remain uncertain, and the situation should be monitored as the year progresses.