Telangana Braces for Dry July as Monsoon Shifts to Western India
Telangana, including Hyderabad, is likely to remain relatively dry for the rest of July, as monsoon conditions have weakened and no significant low-pressure systems are expected over the Bay of Bengal, according to meteorologists at the Telangana Development Planning Society (TGDPS).
While Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra experience heavy rainfall, rainfall activity this July has shifted to central, western and northern India, leaving Telangana with scanty showers. Senior weather consultant Y.V. Rama Rao noted that the southwest monsoon's onset over Telangana was both delayed and weak this year. It entered on June 8 but took nearly 15 days to cover all districts, whereas it normally covers the state in three to four days.
Typically, after onset, the monsoon weakens temporarily before regaining strength through low-pressure systems from the Bay of Bengal, which bring widespread rain to Telangana. However, this process has largely failed this year. Mr. Rao described the pattern as unusual, not seen in the last 10 years. Over the past five to six years, July and August received good rainfall even when June was weak. This year, only scattered thundershowers triggered by local heat and moisture are expected for the next two to three weeks. Significant rainfall is likely only if weather systems develop closer to the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Several factors are suppressing rainfall: strengthening El Niño (warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that tends to suppress monsoon activity over India), and unfavourable conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Rainfall data shows a deficit. Against the normal cumulative rainfall of 6.5 cm expected by July 10, Telangana received only 4.3 cm — a deficit of 33%. From June 1 to July 10, the state received 15.8 cm against a normal of 19.5 cm, a deficit of 19%. Hyderabad recorded 11.3 cm against a normal of 15.6 cm, a 28% shortfall. Only 13 districts recorded normal rainfall, while 20 districts are deficient. Clear skies have pushed daytime temperatures to 34°C-38°C across districts and 33°C-36°C in Hyderabad.
