El Niño Predicted to Sharply Reduce India’s Oil Sardine Stocks by 2027, Warns CMFRI

The Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) has warned that the El Niño climate phenomenon is likely to cause a significant decline in the availability of Indian oil sardines by 2027. The warning came from CMFRI Director Grinson George during the National Fish Farmers Day celebration in Kochi on Friday, July 10, 2026.

According to Dr. George, the warming associated with El Niño is expected to intensify between October and December 2026, with its impact on the northern Indian Ocean likely to be felt by April or May 2027. “Oil sardine stock is abundant this year, but the resource is likely to be affected in 2027 if the projected warming occurs. Small pelagic fishes, especially oil sardine, are the most vulnerable species to heatwaves and ocean warming,” he said.

The CMFRI director added that this would lead to an overall reduction in marine fish production. He cited established data indicating a high probability of marine heatwaves, increased sea surface temperature, and high salinity during April and May 2027. Sustained warming could also adversely affect coral reefs, resulting in coral bleaching and a decline in reef-associated species such as red snapper.

To mitigate the impact, CMFRI plans to issue El Niño advisories to fishermen and fish farmers starting this year. Dr. George urged fish farmers to prepare for the situation, noting that sudden rainfall after prolonged high temperatures and salinity could cause rapid salinity fluctuations, disrupting coastal aquaculture activities.

The announcement underscores the vulnerability of India’s fisheries sector to global climate phenomena and highlights the need for adaptive measures to safeguard livelihoods and food security.