Study warns Western Ghats forests may turn drier by 2050

The lush forests of Tamil Nadu's Western Ghats could undergo a significant transformation by 2050, with climate change driving a shift from evergreen and deciduous forests to drier thorn forests, according to a new study by researchers at Anna University's Centre for Climate Change and Disaster Management.

The study, which focuses on the Nilgiris, Kodaikanal, Valparai, Courtallam and Kanyakumari regions, warns that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns could alter the composition of these ecologically sensitive areas. The findings indicate that evergreen and deciduous forests may shrink, while thorn forests—typically found in drier regions—could expand.

Such changes could have far-reaching consequences for biodiversity, water security, carbon storage and overall ecosystem stability in the State. The Western Ghats, recognised as one of the world's eight 'hottest hotspots' of biological diversity, is home to thousands of species of plants, animals and birds, many of which are endemic.

The researchers used climate models to project future scenarios, highlighting that even under moderate emissions pathways, the forests would face stress. The loss of evergreen cover could disrupt rainfall patterns, reduce groundwater recharge, and affect the livelihoods of communities dependent on forest resources.

Experts emphasise that the study underscores the urgency of climate adaptation strategies, including enhancing forest resilience through conservation, restoration and sustainable land management. However, they caution that immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally is critical to preserving these ecosystems.

The study also notes that the changes might not be uniform across all regions; some areas may experience more rapid shifts than others. Local factors such as altitude, slope and existing forest health will influence the rate of transition.

While forests may still appear green in the coming decades, their ecological character could be fundamentally different. This transformation may affect not only wildlife but also the millions of people who depend on the Western Ghats for water, food and livelihoods.