Strait of Hormuz Crossings Surge After US-Iran War Deal, But Safety Concerns Linger

A total of 25 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, June 18, 2026, marking the highest single-day count since mid-April, according to maritime tracking firm AXSMarine. This surge follows an agreement between Iran and the United States to reopen the strategic waterway as part of a broader deal to end the conflict in West Asia, though talks in Switzerland that were part of the agreement were later cancelled.

AXSMarine reported that the June 18 crossings were more than five times the average daily level recorded during the first ten days of June. Before the war, which began on February 28 after US and Israeli strikes, approximately 120 vessels passed through the strait daily, according to shipping journal Lloyd's List. The strait handles about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports in peacetime.

Iran effectively closed the strait after the strikes began, with maritime authorities reporting dozens of attacks on ships in the area. A brief reopening on April 18 had prompted a short-lived spike in crossings. Since then, crossings had averaged just 7.6 per day from the start of March.

However, the latest spike comes amid significant disruptions to Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals. AXSMarine noted that Thursday saw the largest AIS signal disruption event in the Persian Gulf since the conflict began, with more than 200 commercial vessels affected simultaneously by spoofing or abnormal behavior. Some ships intentionally turn off or manipulate their transponders to avoid detection while transiting the strait.

Shipping groups have warned that plans for the resumption of regular traffic remain unclear and that it is not yet considered safe for vessels to exit the Gulf through the strait. Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at shipping lobby BIMCO, stated that the body expects an international coordination body to be established shortly to facilitate transits. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been working on a plan to ensure safe transit for ships stuck in the Gulf since the conflict began.

According to the IMO, more than 500 commercial vessels remain stuck in the Gulf, with about 11,000 seafarers on board. The organization estimates that 20,000 seafarers in the region have been affected by the war overall.