Repeated Ceasefire Announcements in US-Iran Conflict Undermined by Resumed Strikes

United States President Donald Trump has repeatedly announced pauses in planned strikes against Iran, only for attacks to resume within days or even hours. This pattern has become a defining feature of the five-month conflict that has disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and driven up global oil and commodity prices.

The latest pause came late Saturday, when Trump said he would halt new planned attacks pending renewed talks aimed at winding down the war and restoring cargo traffic through the strategic waterway. This followed a series of similar announcements that have raised hopes for de-escalation, only to be followed by renewed military action.

The conflict began on February 28 with US and Israeli attacks on Iranian targets. Since then, Trump has issued a series of statements threatening massive strikes, then calling them off, citing diplomatic progress. Each time, however, the ceasefire has proven fragile.

In March, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire after intense fighting, making the announcement less than two hours before a deadline he had set for Tehran to capitulate or face strikes on infrastructure. He had warned that such attacks would mean "a whole civilization will die."

Ahead of the ceasefire's expiry, Trump said the US would indefinitely extend it, citing requests from mediators to give Iranian leaders more time to propose terms. That ceasefire held until May 8, when the US carried out strikes on Iranian tankers.

In late May, after a weekend of dire threats, Trump said he was holding off on a major planned strike because "serious negotiations" were underway. "There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I'd be very happy," he said at the time. By May 27, US strikes had resumed after talks faltered.

Following two days of back-and-forth attacks, Trump threatened further escalation, saying the US would hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and take "total control" of its oil and gas industries. Hours later, he announced a breakthrough in negotiations and called off the strikes.

In June, Trump signed an initial agreement with Iran calling for a permanent end to hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal started a 60-day negotiating clock to reach a final agreement on Iran's nuclear program. However, Trump left the door open to abandoning it, saying, "It's a memorandum of understanding, and if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs."

Days later, after Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the strait, Trump launched new strikes while in Ankara for a NATO summit. He subsequently renewed his threat to "just finish the job" on Iran, saying he believed the ceasefire was over.

Most recently, Trump said he had paused two weeks of intense daily US strikes to give negotiations another chance. During those 13 days, the US military targeted key military and commercial sites as clashes escalated over shipping routes. Iran responded by launching missiles and drones at countries in the Middle East that host US troops.

Then, after telling reporters the US would hit Iran "very hard," Trump reversed course, saying on social media that he had cancelled planned strikes. He claimed Mideast allies had reached the parameters of a deal to end the war, including a reopening of the strait. "Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL," he wrote.

In response, Iran's defence minister said the country was "neither surprised nor passive" and remained alert in the face of threats.

The repeated announcements and subsequent resumptions have left observers uncertain about the trajectory of the conflict. While each pause offers a potential path to de-escalation, the resumption of attacks underscores the volatility of the situation. The impact on global markets and regional stability remains significant, with no clear end in sight.