Short Bursts of Rain Cause Havoc Despite Below-Normal Monsoon Season
Just a week of heavy rain has been enough to flood cities, trigger landslides in the hills and unleash cloudbursts across parts of north India, even as the southwest monsoon remains below normal.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country received 195.5 mm of cumulative rainfall between June 1 and July 8, 2026, against the long-period average of 230.4 mm (1971-2020). This leaves a deficit of 15.2 per cent. However, the events of the past week tell a different story.
Between July 1 and July 8, a sharp increase in rainfall was recorded across northwest, central and western India, while large parts of the east and south remained dry. This uneven distribution is key: a seasonal deficit does not preclude extreme weather. When rain falls in short, intense bursts instead of being spread over weeks, even deficit regions can experience floods, landslides and cloudbursts.
In Kerala, a landslide in Wayanad district killed five people. Wayanad initially had a 56 per cent cumulative deficit since June 1. Even in the first eight days of July, the district was 26 per cent below normal. Yet on July 7 and 8, rainfall was 41 per cent and 27 per cent above normal, respectively. The concentrated downpour triggered the landslide despite the seasonal shortfall.
Similarly, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed cloudbursts, including one in Doda district that damaged homes and infrastructure. A cloudburst is defined as rainfall of 100 mm or more within one hour over a small area. Most districts in the Union Territory remain in the normal or deficient category, except a few like Samba (83 per cent excess) and Udhampur (79 per cent excess). Yet between July 1 and July 8, many districts turned blue on the rainfall map, indicating heavy weekly totals.
Maharashtra also saw heavy rain in the first week of July, leading to flooding and landslides. Mumbai and surrounding areas faced widespread disruption. In Gurugram, waterlogging on major roads brought traffic to a halt.
The contrast between seasonal deficits and intense short-duration rainfall underscores the need for better disaster preparedness. As the monsoon continues, authorities must remain vigilant even in regions that appear to be lagging in cumulative rainfall.
