Oil tanker rates hit record highs after Strait of Hormuz ceasefire, but traffic remains thin

Oil tanker rates have surged to unprecedented levels this week following a temporary ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States, which allowed a limited resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, shipping data and sources indicate that the number of vessels passing through the strategic waterway remains far below pre-conflict levels, and about 100 tankers are still stranded inside the Gulf with cargoes onboard.

The conflict began on February 28, 2025, effectively halting most shipping through the strait, through which about 125 vessels, including oil tankers, passed daily before the war. Iran lifted its effective blockade last week after agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire with the US, but official talks to end the war continue. Since then, traffic has resumed only modestly, with a fraction of the previous daily average transiting the strait, according to market estimates cited by Reuters.

The rush by buyers, including India's largest refiner Reliance, to secure crude from the region after months of supply disruptions has driven tanker rates to record highs. The spike reflects both the urgent demand for oil and the shortage of available vessels, as many tankers remain trapped inside the Gulf. The situation underscores the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the ongoing risks to global energy supplies.

Industry analysts warn that the full restoration of normal shipping flows depends on a permanent peace agreement and the safe departure of stranded vessels. Until then, tanker rates are expected to remain volatile, with significant implications for global oil prices and import-dependent economies like India.