Government Faces Uphill Battle to Pass Women's Reservation Bill as Numbers Fall Short

Despite an increase in the NDA's parliamentary strength, the government faces significant hurdles in pushing through a fresh women's reservation bill and the accompanying delimitation bill during the upcoming Monsoon Session. The bills require a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament, a threshold the ruling alliance currently does not meet.

The NDA currently has 293 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Even if the crossover of 20 Trinamool Congress and six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs is validated by the Speaker, the alliance's strength would rise to 319. However, the two-thirds mark in the 543-member House is 360 — 41 more than the projected tally. In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA has 152 MPs, while the required number is 161.

To bridge this gap, the government needs support from other parties, either through affirmative votes or significant abstentions. The DMK, with 22 Lok Sabha MPs, is a key player. The party has previously demanded an extension of the freeze on delimitation to maintain the current seat allocation. However, sources indicate that the DMK's stance may have softened following the rise of actor-politician C. Joseph Vijay's party in Tamil Nadu. DMK MP Tiruchi Siva declined to comment, stating it would be speculative to discuss until a formal proposal is presented.

A government source said in June that a new bill would be brought only when the numbers are assured. In the previous Budget Session, the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, which sought to expedite women's reservation by using the 2011 Census for delimitation, fell short of the required majority. The accompanying Delimitation Bill, which needed only a simple majority, was not taken up.

The constitutional hurdle centres on Article 81(2)(a), which mandates that the ratio of seats to population be, as far as practicable, equal for all states. The proposed bill did not amend this principle, leaving concerns about representation. Home Minister Amit Shah had assured that the proportion of seats allocated to states would not change during expansion, but this assurance was not reflected in the circulated bills.

As the government prepares for the Monsoon Session, it must secure additional support to meet the two-thirds requirement. The DMK's position, along with that of other regional parties, will be crucial in determining the fate of the women's reservation bill.