Soil degradation, not seed policy, is the real culprit behind India's cotton slump
India's cotton productivity has been declining since 2014-15, but the debate over the role of genetically modified (GM) seeds may be overlooking a more fundamental issue: soil health. A recent article by Ashok Gulati, Ayushi Gupta, and Ritika Juneja attributed the productivity drop to seed price controls that blocked new GM traits such as Bollgard-II RRFlex and Bollgard-III. However, evidence from global comparisons and Indian data suggests that soil degradation, not seed policy, is the primary constraint.
The authors of the original article credited Bt cotton for an 88% productivity increase between 2002 and 2013, and argued that halting new GM approvals caused the subsequent decline. However, data from the Ministry of Textiles complicates this narrative: India's productivity had already reached 521 kg/ha in 2006 and 554 kg/ha in 2007, when Bollgard-II was approved but occupied a negligible share of cotton area. Productivity later declined to 449 kg/ha by 2018, even as Bollgard-II adoption peaked. This suggests that other factors drove the gains.
International comparisons further challenge the GM-centric view. China, which grows the same Bt genes as India but in varieties rather than hybrids, achieved yields of 2,311 kg/ha in 2023. Turkey, which has not approved any GM cotton, saw yields rise from 1,100 kg/ha in 1999 to 1,728 kg/ha in 2026. Over the same period, India's yields rose from 304 kg/ha to 458 kg/ha, peaking at 566 kg/ha in 2013-14. Neither China nor Turkey relies on the newer GM traits that the article advocates, yet their productivity far exceeds India's.
The root cause of India's cotton productivity collapse appears to be soil degradation. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), nearly 32% of Indian land is degraded and 25% faces desertification. Soil organic carbon (SOC) in Indian croplands averages just 0.3–0.6%, far below the globally accepted minimum of 1–1.5% for productive soils. Critically low SOC levels below 0.25% have been recorded across cotton-growing regions of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. No technology stack, GM or otherwise, can deliver its yield potential in such depleted soils.
The productivity gains of 2002–2011 are better explained by a confluence of factors: effective bollworm control by Bt cotton, hybrid seed adoption surging from 38% to 92%, a 2.3-fold increase in fertiliser use, and expansion of irrigated area from 2.5 million to 4.4 million hectares. Heavier farmer investment in crop management compounded these gains. Once inputs approached saturation, the law of diminishing returns set in, and soil degradation became the binding constraint.
Thus, the primary focus of the Cotton Technology Mission should be restoring soil organic carbon through regenerative agricultural practices, such as cover cropping, residue retention, and integrated nutrient management. While GM traits may offer marginal benefits, they cannot substitute for the agronomic and soil health interventions that are decisive for sustainable yield improvement.
