Oil Rally Pressures Sensex; Bitcoin Steady Near $78,500 Ahead of Inflation Data

Oil prices extended their rally for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with Brent crude hovering near $99.5 per barrel. The sustained rise in energy costs intensified inflationary concerns globally, dampening sentiment across equity markets. Indian benchmarks—the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty—were expected to open lower, reflecting cautious market participants. For India, a major importer of crude, a continued spike in oil prices usually means a higher import bill and added pressure on retail inflation.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin traded around $78,530 on Wednesday morning, up about 0.9 per cent over the past 24 hours, after oscillating between $77,636 and $79,463. According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Giottus, the market remains range-bound as investors await crucial US inflation data due later this week.

Subburaj noted that Bitcoin’s immediate support is in the $77,600–$78,000 zone, followed by $77,300. Resistance is positioned near $79,400–$80,000. A sustained move beyond the $81,000–$81,300 range would improve the short-term chart structure, he added.

The on-chain picture for Bitcoin is finely balanced, the analyst observed. Spot momentum has declined 30 per cent to 54.6, while spot trading volume remains around $5.3 billion. Selling pressure appears to be easing, although it has not yet translated into strong buying conviction. Futures open interest has increased to $37.1 billion, and options open interest has risen to $40.1 billion. This indicates that leverage is building even as directional conviction remains limited.

Capital flows into the asset have been healthier. Around 69.3 per cent of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, while monthly realised-cap growth has accelerated to 0.8 per cent, suggesting gradual accumulation by long-term holders.

Institutional demand has remained supportive among US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data shows net outflows of $236.5 million on September 1, followed by net inflows of $101.1 million on September 2. Inflows strengthened to $730.8 million on September 3 and $174.6 million on September 4. Overall, these ETFs recorded approximately $770 million in net inflows between September 1 and 4.

Among large-cap altcoins, Ethereum traded near $2,496, BNB around $754, XRP near $1.42, Solana around $103.4, and TRON near $0.339. The price movements reflect selective risk-taking rather than a broad altcoin rally, Subburaj said.

Macroeconomic cues remain the primary risk factor. Markets are pricing in roughly a 60 per cent probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting. Key data releases include the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11, ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting on September 15–16. Brent crude near $99.5 per barrel adds to inflation worries, potentially influencing central bank policy. The upcoming inflation readings will be closely monitored, as they could set the tone for market sentiment across asset classes.

Given the uncertainty, Subburaj advises investors to avoid excessive leverage before the inflation data. He recommends a staggered accumulation approach for those looking to build positions, citing immediate support at $77,600–$78,000 and resistance at $79,400–$81,300.

As the day unfolds, traders will track oil price movement, currency trends, and any fresh macroeconomic releases. The interplay between energy costs and monetary policy decisions is expected to remain the dominant theme across both traditional and digital assets.