June 2026 rainfall deficit climbs to 43%, fifth driest in 125 years
New Delhi: June 2026 is on track to become the fifth driest June in India since 1901, with a rainfall deficit exceeding 43% as of June 28. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recorded only 85.2 mm of rainfall this month against the long-period average of 165.3 mm, a shortfall that has prompted concerns over the overall monsoon performance.
In the past 125 years, only four Junes have recorded less than 100 mm of rainfall: 1905, 1926, 2009, and 2014. The driest June was in 2009 when the country received 87.5 mm. The current deficit places 2026 just below that mark, with a week still remaining in the month.
Meteorologists attribute the poor June rainfall to a delayed onset of the monsoon over parts of northwest India and the intensifying El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño, which is associated with warming of sea surface temperatures, typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India. Three of the four previous Junes with less than 100 mm rainfall — 1926, 2009, and 2014 — were affected by El Niño.
The IMD had predicted June rainfall at 92% of the long-period average and the overall four-month monsoon season at 90%. The large June deficit may force a reassessment of this forecast. The El Niño event, which is still strengthening and has not yet peaked, could continue to impact rainfall in the remaining months of July, August, and September.
Despite the overall deficit, the monsoon has advanced over most parts of the country except some areas in northwest India, including Delhi, parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The IMD has indicated that conditions are becoming favourable for further advance into these regions in the first week of July.
June is a critical month for sowing of kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. The rainfall deficit has raised concerns about agricultural output and water availability. However, the IMD has noted that adequate soil moisture and reservoir levels in many parts of the country could help mitigate some of the impact if July and August receive normal rainfall.
The seasonal forecast for the remaining monsoon months will be updated by the IMD in early July, taking into account the evolving El Niño conditions and other atmospheric parameters.
