IMD Forecasts Below-Normal July Rainfall After Record June Deficit
NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its latest forecast predicting below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country in July, even as the monsoon is expected to advance further into the remaining regions over the next few days. The forecast comes after June recorded the fifth-lowest rainfall since 1901, with a deficit of 40% nationwide.
According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to cover the remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Daman & Diu, Jammu & Kashmir, most of Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and Punjab, and some parts of Rajasthan in the next 2-3 days. This advancement is expected to bring a wet spell over the next 7-10 days, which may help reduce the current rainfall deficit and support sowing operations, especially in the monsoon core zone—the rain-fed agricultural areas in central India.
However, the IMD has clarified that despite this expected improvement, the overall rainfall for July is likely to be 'below normal' across most parts of the country. July is typically the wettest month of the monsoon season and critical for the sowing of kharif crops. The forecast also indicates that July may be warmer than usual, with 'above normal' temperatures predicted in several places.
The formation of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to aid rainfall in the first 10 days of July, bringing showers to most parts of central India, from Odisha and West Bengal to Gujarat and Maharashtra. Nevertheless, the IMD noted that not a single low-pressure system formed during June, contributing to the significant rainfall deficit.
Explaining the factors behind the weak start to the monsoon, Mohapatra stated that the development of El Niño conditions had a negative impact on rainfall activity over the Indian region. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently in a neutral phase, could not compensate for this negative effect. The IMD's model indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist throughout the southwest monsoon season.
June 2023 recorded an average rainfall of 99.5 mm over India, making it the fifth-lowest June rainfall since 1901. The lowest ever was in 2009 (87.6 mm), an El Niño year that saw a major drought. This year's June rainfall is the lowest since 2014 (92.8 mm), which was also a drought year. Some global climate models suggest a possibility of the IOD turning positive by the end of August or early September, which could slightly improve rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season. However, the IMD cautions that this may not be sufficient to offset the deficit accumulated in June and July.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole are two key climate phenomena that influence the variability of the Indian monsoon. The neutral IOD phase, combined with El Niño conditions, has historically led to below-normal monsoon seasons. Farmers and policymakers are advised to plan accordingly, as the agricultural sector heavily depends on monsoon rains.
