El Niño Could Worsen India's Power Gap, Triggering More Coal Use: Study
India's power system may face greater strain from the developing El Niño than any other country, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The study projects that weaker wind and hydropower output, combined with rising demand for air conditioning, could create a generation shortfall of nearly 18 terawatt-hours (TWh) over the year leading to June 2027.
While this gap represents less than 1% of India's total electricity generation—estimated at 1,846 billion units in 2025-26—the concern lies in how it will be filled. CREA's median projection is 17.7 TWh, with a severe-case estimate of 24 TWh. The likely outcome, the study says, is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. The group stresses that these are scenario projections, not forecasts.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed last month that El Niño conditions had emerged over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen through the monsoon. It has forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of a deficient season. June rainfall closed with an all-India deficit of about 40%, the fifth-lowest for June since 1901, and the cumulative shortfall stood at 20% below normal by July 6. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said rainfall in July is likely to stay below normal across most of the country.
India entered the season with record electric generation capacity. As of March 31, non-fossil installed capacity reached 283.46 GW—comprising 150.26 GW of solar, 56.09 GW of wind, 51.41 GW of large hydro, and 8.78 GW of nuclear—after a record addition of 44.6 GW of solar and 6 GW of wind in 2025-26. Coal remains the largest single source of power, at about 42% of installed capacity, though coal generation fell 3.69% over the year. Peak demand touched 270.82 GW on May 21.
CREA, which reports that solar now meets 24% of daytime demand, argues that storage could have absorbed more of it. Grid operators curtailed about 2.1 TWh of solar and wind last year to keep coal plants running—waste that CREA, citing energy analytics firm Ember, says roughly 10 GWh of battery storage could have averted. India must 'move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades,' said Nandikesh Sivalingam, CREA's director, so that clean energy can meet future demand surges. The country is planning around 130 GW of new coal capacity to provide on-demand power and buffer against record peaks such as in May.
