AfD wins big in Germany's Saxony-Anhalt election but falls short of majority

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a decisive victory in a regional election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, winning 43.8% of the vote. However, the party fell short of an absolute majority in the state legislature, leaving the possibility of Germany's first far-right-led state government since World War II unresolved.

The AfD's lead candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, 35, said the result had "written history" and that voters had sent a signal that "things cannot carry on like this." Speaking to public broadcaster ARD, he also credited Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the national leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), as "a very good campaigner for us in this election campaign."

The AfD had sought an outright majority in the 83-member state parliament to govern alone and bypass the so-called firewall, a coordinated refusal by mainstream parties to work with it. Final results showed the party won 39 seats, three short of an absolute majority. Siegmund said the AfD would not engage in "games" such as forming a minority government. But it remained unclear how the other parties, which are divided among themselves, could assemble a stable coalition without the AfD.

This election was closely watched because a state government led by the AfD would be the biggest prize in the party's 13-year history. The AfD is the largest opposition party in the national parliament and enjoys its strongest support in the formerly communist eastern states, where Saxony-Anhalt is located. Germany, unlike several other European countries, has not yet had a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a state or national government in the post-war era.

The result also dealt a heavy blow to Chancellor Merz's CDU, which had governed Saxony-Anhalt for the past 24 years. The CDU polled just 17.2%, losing about half of its previous support, and won only 15 seats. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) received 9.3%, the Greens 8.9%, and the Left Party 8.6%, each winning eight seats. The BSW, a newer party that has said it would support neither Siegmund nor incumbent governor Sven Schulze but has criticised the firewall, won 5.3% and five seats.

Turnout was high at 77.8%. The AfD appears to have attracted many voters who had not cast ballots in the previous election five years ago.

The AfD's national co-leader, Alice Weidel, called the result "sensational" and said, "We have received a very clear mandate to govern here." She added that the party's "hand is outstretched to all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward," suggesting the party might hope to win over defectors from other parties.

Incumbent governor Sven Schulze congratulated the AfD on becoming the strongest political force in the state and acknowledged, "We as the CDU will also have to deal with this result," without elaborating on how. The CDU's national general secretary, Franziska Hoppermann, ruled out any retreat from the party's refusal to cooperate with the AfD.

The AfD's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt is one of several that the domestic intelligence agency has classified as a proven right-wing extremism case, citing members' derogatory remarks about migrants from Muslim countries. The party also uses the term "remigration," a politically charged word for deportations of immigrants. The AfD rejects accusations of extremism, saying they are politically motivated.

The result underscores the deep political divide in Germany over migration and economic policies, as Chancellor Merz's national government struggles to convince voters it can revive the sluggish economy. Whether the AfD ultimately takes power in Saxony-Anhalt, the election outcome marks a significant shift in the state's political landscape and will likely have wider implications for German politics.