Russia Proposes Rail Link to India via Iran and Pakistan Amid Strait Risks

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin has suggested that Moscow and New Delhi explore the feasibility of a direct rail link to the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at reducing reliance on maritime routes that pass through the Bosphorus Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, reported by Russian state news agency TASS, comes amid heightened tensions in the region following recent military strikes involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

According to Khusnullin, potential rail corridors could pass through Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. "A rail link to the Indian Ocean should also be explored," he said. "Risks related to the Bosphorus and the Strait of Hormuz might require alternative routes: through Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Any options providing access to India are acceptable." He described any such corridor providing connectivity to India as "viable."

The proposal has been floated at a time when maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, targeting major urban centres, including Tehran. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets and US military bases in several countries, including Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. In response, Tehran announced a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting vessels linked to the US, Israel, and allied nations involved in the conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, handling approximately 20% of global oil trade and nearly 20% of worldwide liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Any prolonged disruption to this waterway has significant implications for global energy markets and supply chains.

Separately, Türkiye briefly restricted access to the Bosphorus Strait following attacks on vessels in the strait, including Turkish-owned ships. The Bosphorus is another vital maritime route, connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, and is particularly important for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, as well as oil and gas shipments.

The proposed rail link, if realised, would create a direct overland freight corridor between Russia and India, bypassing both straits. However, such a project would face substantial logistical, financial, and geopolitical challenges. The route through Afghanistan, in particular, remains beset by security concerns and political instability. Additionally, the existing rail infrastructure in some of the countries mentioned is underdeveloped, requiring significant investment and cooperation among multiple governments.

The idea is not entirely new; discussions about an International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) have been ongoing for years, involving Russia, Iran, and India, among others. However, the INSTC typically connects via the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan, rather than through Afghanistan and Pakistan. Khusnullin's proposal appears to suggest a broader network that could integrate multiple regional routes.

Beyond the rail link, Khusnullin also addressed Russia's domestic construction sector. He stated that the industry currently has the capacity to absorb an additional one trillion rubles annually. "The construction industry is already capable of handling an additional one trillion rubles annually," he said. "However, if such a volume is secured for the next five years, it would be possible to expand capacity and build even more." This comment underscores the Russian government's focus on infrastructure development as a driver of economic growth.

There has been no formal response from the Indian government to the proposal as of now. Analysts note that any such corridor would require careful diplomatic engagement, particularly given India's relationships with the countries along the proposed route. India has historically maintained strong ties with Iran, but its relations with Pakistan remain strained. Similarly, the security situation in Afghanistan remains a concern.

The proposal remains at a preliminary stage, with Khusnullin calling for a feasibility study rather than announcing a concrete plan. The coming months will likely see further discussions between Russian and Indian officials, as both countries seek to diversify their trade routes in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.