Hamas disarmament plan: Rare hope, countless hurdles for Gaza
A proposal for Hamas to surrender its weapons in Gaza in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from most of the territory has emerged as a potential diplomatic breakthrough. But the initiative faces enormous obstacles, and its success depends on fragile political calculations both in Israel and the United States.
The core bargain is simple: Hamas hands over its arsenal, and Israeli forces pull back from the roughly 70% of Gaza they currently control. In practice, the plan is complicated by deep mutual distrust, the devastating human cost of the 15-month war, and the competing political pressures on leaders in Jerusalem and Washington.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains catastrophic. More than 2 million Palestinian civilians are living in desperate conditions, with homes destroyed, livelihoods ruined, and infrastructure reduced to rubble. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, whose casualty figures are considered reliable by the United Nations, Israeli military operations have killed more than 70,000 Palestinians since the war began, including over 20,000 children, as reported by UNICEF. The actual toll may be higher, as thousands of missing persons are still unaccounted for.
Beyond the bomb damage, there have been reports of systematic demolition by Israeli civilian contractors, a practice that many Palestinians and officials in neighbouring countries view as a deliberate effort to depopulate Gaza. They allege that powerful figures in the Israeli government aim to make life in the enclave so intolerable that Palestinians will leave permanently. These charges of forced displacement or ethnic cleansing are denied by Israeli authorities, who say their operations are targeting Hamas infrastructure and militants.
On the Israeli side, there is widespread public support for disarming Hamas completely. The 7 October 2023 attack, in which around 1,200 people were killed, mostly civilians, and 251 were taken hostage, remains a profound national trauma. Many Israelis believe Hamas would repeat such an assault if given the chance, and they see disarmament as a security necessity, not a concession.
The diplomatic process is tightly interwoven with electoral calendars. Israel is due to hold a general election at the end of October, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trailing in the polls while facing an ongoing corruption trial. He is wary of being seen as yielding to Hamas, yet he also depends on support from the Trump administration in Washington. The United States has midterm elections in November, and President Trump is seeking a foreign policy victory, particularly after failing to deter Iran militarily. If Trump perceives Netanyahu as obstructing a Gaza deal, he could pressure the Israeli leader, potentially reshaping the political landscape in Israel.
Netanyahu has long presented himself as the one politician who can manage the Americans, including Trump. A public confrontation with the White House before Israel's election would undermine that claim. Meanwhile, Palestinian factions, including Hamas, have their own internal dynamics and distrust of Israeli commitments, making any phased process vulnerable to collapse at the first security incident.
For all these reasons, the disarmament plan is not guaranteed to succeed. Yet the very fact that it is on the table marks a rare opening in a conflict that has seemed locked in endless violence. If handled with patience and genuine compromise, it could eventually provide a foundation for a more stable peace, but the window for action is narrow and the risks are immense.
