4.8% retail inflation is highest under Modi government, says Minister Pralhad Joshi

Union Minister for Education, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Pralhad Joshi said on Tuesday that the present retail inflation of 4.8% is the highest recorded during the 12 years of the Narendra Modi government, while retail inflation under the UPA government had crossed double digits.

Speaking to journalists in Hubballi, Mr. Joshi said he was personally sensitive to the issue because his department is responsible for monitoring food inflation. He attributed the current rise to the El Niño weather pattern and natural calamities, and said that five to six months ago, before the West Asia crisis began, retail inflation was a little above 1.5%.

"Otherwise just five to six months ago before the West Asia crisis started, it was just over 1.5%," he said, adding that attempts to politicise the current figure would not work.

Responding to criticism from the Opposition over the 4.8% figure, Mr. Joshi said that during the UPA period, under the guidance of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, retail inflation was close to 10% for almost eight years. "In fact, it had crossed double digits and never came down to a single digit," he said. The Minister did not cite a specific data series for the comparison.

Mr. Joshi said India's economy had remained resilient despite a difficult global economic environment, and that the country's economic performance had been praised by several world leaders at the recent BRICS summit. He said India's GDP figures could not be concealed and that its economic progress was drawing global attention.

"People from across the world are looking at India's situation and are coming forward to invest in the country. Our exports have increased," he said.

He also criticised the Opposition for focusing on matters such as the menu served at the BRICS meeting rather than discussing India's economic performance.

What the numbers refer to

Retail inflation, or Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, measures the year-on-year change in the prices paid by households for a basket of goods and services, including food, fuel, housing and services. It is compiled and released every month by the National Statistical Office.

Food and beverages carry the largest weight in the CPI basket, which is why food prices, rainfall patterns and weather events such as El Niño tend to influence the headline retail inflation figure significantly. Global energy prices, the rupee's exchange rate and supply disruptions also feed into it.

India follows a flexible inflation targeting framework. The Reserve Bank of India is mandated to keep CPI inflation at 4%, with a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. The current 4.8% figure that Mr. Joshi referred to therefore falls within that band, though above the midpoint target.

Comparisons of inflation across governments depend on the period chosen and on the data series used. The base year and methodology of the CPI have been revised over time, and food and fuel price shocks, monsoon performance and global commodity cycles have differed across the two periods being compared. Readers assessing such claims are best served by looking at the full monthly CPI series published by the National Statistical Office, which is publicly available, rather than at single-year or single-month figures.

Mr. Joshi's remarks come amid continued public debate over price rise, with food inflation being the sharpest point of contention between the government and the Opposition. The Minister's position is that external factors, rather than domestic policy, explain the movement in prices, while the Opposition has argued that retail inflation affects household budgets directly, particularly for lower-income families who spend a larger share of their income on food.