US Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50-3.75%, Signals Possible Hikes if Inflation Persists

The US Federal Reserve has decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% following its latest two-day policy meeting, opting for a cautious approach amid persistent inflationary pressures. The decision was made with a 9:3 majority, with three members voting for a 25-basis-point rate hike.

In a statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, noting that while inflation moderated in June 2026 following the ceasefire announcement, upside risks remain. These risks are driven by higher oil prices due to renewed geopolitical tensions, as well as potential pressures from food, tariffs, and shelter costs. The path toward lower inflation appears more gradual than previously anticipated.

The new Fed Chair refrained from providing forward guidance, instead emphasizing a data-dependent approach. The differing views within the committee highlight the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook. If the Fed decides to tighten policy in the future, it could support the US dollar and weigh on commodities and emerging market assets if dollar strength is sustained.

The Fed's assessment of the economy noted that overall growth remains resilient, supported by productivity gains and strong capital investment. Labour market conditions also remain robust, with an average of 111,000 jobs added over the last three months and the unemployment rate declining to 4.2% in June 2026.

However, inflation continues to run above the target, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.5% and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index at 4.1%. The Fed Chair reiterated the committee's focus on reaching the 2% target and left the door open for future rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist. The FOMC is also awaiting observations from the inflation task force announced in the last policy meeting.

Market reaction was muted but choppy, with the S&P 500 closing 1.5% lower. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stood around 4.68%, while the US dollar index (DXY) closed at 100.9, down about 0.5%. Investors are now focused on upcoming earnings reports from major technology companies.