Russia’s share in India’s oil imports hits all-time high of 48% despite US tariff threat

Russia’s share in India’s crude oil imports rose to an all-time high of 48% in June 2026, according to an analysis of data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The increase comes even as the United States Senate has passed a Bill that could lead to tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas.

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, passed last week, seeks to levy tariffs on countries that were among the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas during the 12 months preceding its enactment and that continue to import these products after 30 days of the Act coming into force. India, being one of the largest purchasers, qualifies for such tariffs. The Bill still needs to be passed by the U.S. House of Representatives before it becomes law.

India significantly reduced its total crude oil imports in June. In terms of volume, imports fell to 18.2 million metric tonnes (MMT), down 16.5% from May 2026 and 13% lower than in June 2025. However, elevated crude oil prices meant the import bill, while 22% lower than in May, was still 40% higher than in June last year.

In contrast to the overall decline, imports from Russia remained nearly steady. India purchased 8.7 MMT of Russian oil in June, just 1% lower than in May and 25% higher than in June 2025. Consequently, Russia’s share in India’s crude imports rose to 48% by quantity and 48.6% by value. This share has been rising consistently every month since March, coinciding with heightened tensions in West Asia.

The U.S. Bill specifies that tariffs could be imposed on countries that were among the top five importers of Russian oil or gas over the preceding year. China and India are the top two importers of Russian oil. India’s growing dependence on Russian supplies is partly attributed to constraints on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which has limited alternative sources.

The premium Russia charges India for its oil has steadily declined, from $77.7 per tonne in April 2026 to $10.6 per tonne in June. Until February 2026, Russia had been offering India a discount. This pricing trend has made Russian crude more attractive at a time of global price volatility.

On the question of sanctions exposure, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) said India has taken specific measures to pre-empt any risk. In a clarificatory note, the Ministry said that ship-to-ship transfer operations were conducted in international waters via the Red Sea route through Yanbu and Fujairah, ensuring that a single choke point or sanctions regime could not halt India-bound cargo. It remains unclear whether these actions could be interpreted as helping Russia evade sanctions.

Apart from Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also saw its share in India’s oil imports rise to historic highs. The UAE accounted for 17.5% of imports by volume and 18% by value in June 2026, the highest for both. Together, Russia and the UAE supplied nearly two-thirds of India’s oil imports, the largest combined share ever recorded for any two countries.

While such concentration has raised concerns about supply security, the MoPNG said it is not a matter of worry given the flexibility Indian oil marketing companies possess. "Indian refineries had spent a decade acquiring the logistical flexibility to switch between crude grades and shipping routes," the Ministry stated, suggesting that diversification remains possible despite the current heavy reliance on Russian and UAE supplies.

The evolution of the U.S. legislative process and India’s subsequent policy decisions will be crucial in balancing the country’s energy security needs with its international obligations in the months ahead.