Lula's last stand: Brazil votes in knife-edge runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilians vote on Sunday in a presidential runoff that will decide whether Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva serves a fourth term in office or whether the country turns right again under Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Final opinion polls before the ballot put the two candidates level, making the result one of the most uncertain in Brazil's recent electoral history. The outcome will determine whether Latin America's largest economy remains among the region's few left-led governments or joins a wider shift to the right.

Mr. Lula, who turns 81 next week, is contesting his fourth term overall. He has presented himself as a bulwark against foreign interference and democratic backsliding, and has promised to expand social protection. He reached the runoff after a shock second-place finish in the first round, a result that forced his campaign into a rapid rethink.

A call for change

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has campaigned on promises to crack down on crime and cut government spending, and has framed the election as a demand for change. He has sought to present himself as more moderate than his father, a deeply divisive figure who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for his role in an attempted coup after the 2022 election loss. The senator has said that, if elected, his first act would be to release his father.

"Enough is enough. We've had 16 years of this administration, and it's clear it did not work. It is time for a change," said Joao Paulo, 37, at a rally in Belo Horizonte, referring roughly to the total period in which Mr. Lula's Workers' Party (PT) has governed Brazil.

After the first-round result, the left mobilised large rallies under the slogan "Never Again Bolsonaro", where supporters recalled the former president's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, his environmental record in the Amazon and cuts to public programmes.

Prices, crime and the Amazon

Mr. Lula, who first came to office in 2003 and is credited with social welfare programmes that lifted millions out of poverty, returned to the presidency in 2022 after a corruption scandal that saw him jailed for more than 18 months. The charges were later annulled on procedural grounds, but the case has continued to dog him.

In his current term, inflation and unemployment have fallen and millions have been lifted out of hunger. Voters, however, complain about the cost of living and about crime. His welfare spending during the campaign has become a point of tension, with critics arguing that the government should rein in expenditure.

"Even if people call it handouts, for us they were an enormous help. Because anyone who has ever gone hungry knows not to take these programmes for granted," said Walter dos Santos, 56, who lives in northeastern Brazil, a stronghold of support for the president, who hails from the same region.

Deforestation of the world's largest rainforest has fallen to its lowest level in four decades under Mr. Lula. Yet as the El Nino weather phenomenon fuelled fires that have choked Amazonian cities with smoke in recent weeks, climate change featured only marginally in the campaign.

A bruising aftermath

The contest has also been fought fiercely online. After his first-round setback, Mr. Lula overhauled his social media strategy, turning to video selfies and even buying his first mobile phone. Meta, the parent company of WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, was drawn into the debate after the Lula campaign accused it of "algorithmic manipulation" in favour of his opponent. Meta denied the charge but acknowledged that some of Mr. Lula's campaign advertisements had been mistakenly deactivated because of technical errors.

Whoever wins, Brazil faces a difficult period after the vote. "If the left wins, it faces four years with a hostile Congress and threats of impeachment," said political analyst Thomas Traumann, referring to sweeping legislative gains made by the right.

Analysts say the next administration will inherit a deeply polarised electorate and a combative legislature, and will need to build coalitions to govern effectively. The election has also been watched closely abroad, with U.S. President Donald Trump so far declining to openly endorse the son of his political ally.