Karnataka Legislative Council Elections: Congress Poised for Upper House Majority

The stage is set for the Karnataka Legislative Council elections to fill seven seats, a contest that could give the ruling Congress party a majority in the Upper House for the first time since it formed the government over three years ago. With the voting scheduled for Thursday, parties engaged in intense number-churning exercises on Wednesday, holding strategy meetings and mock polls to ensure their legislators are prepared for the preferential ballot.

The Congress, which currently holds 37 seats in the 75-member Council, needs just four wins to secure a majority. It is confident of comfortably winning four seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure two. The fight for the seventh seat is a direct contest between Congress candidate Vinay Karthik and Janata Dal (Secular) nominee Govindaraju, making it the focal point of political calculations.

To minimise the risk of invalid votes and cross-voting, the Congress conducted three rounds of mock voting at a resort near Bidadi, with Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar also participating. Over 30 of its legislators are first-timers, making the training crucial. Similarly, JD(S) legislators gathered at a resort near Nandi Hills for a strategy session led by Union Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, where they received guidance on the preferential voting system from senior leaders. The BJP held its own training session at a city hotel.

Each candidate needs a minimum of 28 votes to win, and parties are carefully apportioning votes among their nominees. Precedents show that parties often allocate an extra vote as a safety margin to guard against invalid ballots or absent members. Since voting is by secret ballot, second preferential votes play a critical role, especially in tight contests where fears of cross-voting loom.

The Congress, with its strength of 135 MLAs in the 224-member Legislative Assembly (currently at 222 due to a disqualification and a demise), enjoys the support of two Independents, one Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha member, and two BJP rebels—S.T. Somashekar and Shivaram Hebbar. The BJP has 63 MLAs, including G. Janardhan Reddy, while the JD(S) has 18 and expects backing from BJP’s expelled member Basanagouda R. Patil Yatnal.

Political arithmetic suggests that if the Congress allots 28 votes to each of its five candidates, all would win comfortably. However, to cushion against invalid votes and cross-voting, parties typically assign at least one extra vote to each candidate. Should the Congress give 29 votes to its first four candidates, its fifth would fall short by four votes, ending with 24. For the JD(S), the situation is more complex. The party has 18 votes of its own and is seeking six from the BJP for its candidate Govindaraju. With support from Janardhan Reddy and Yatnal, its tally could reach 26. If the BJP allots 29 votes to each of its two candidates, it can transfer only four to the JD(S), leaving Govindaraju with 24 votes. In both cases, second preferential votes from surplus ballots of winning candidates become decisive, potentially swinging the outcome.

The Congress currently has 135 MLAs, and with allied support, its effective strength in the Assembly is around 140. The BJP’s 63 MLAs include a few whose loyalties are being closely watched. Meanwhile, the JD(S) leadership, under Kumaraswamy, is banking on its alliance with the BJP to secure the crucial extra votes, though BJP sources indicated a final decision on vote allocation was pending.

The Council elections are significant as they will determine the balance of power in the Upper House, which has often seen the ruling party lacking a majority. A Congress majority would smoothen the passage of legislation and solidify its hold on the state’s bicameral legislature. The results are expected later this week.