Israel votes as Netanyahu's future hinges on coalition arithmetic

Israelis are casting ballots on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, in parliamentary elections that will decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu extends a political career stretching back to 1996, or whether a divided opposition can put together a majority to replace him.

The vote is widely seen as a test of Mr. Netanyahu's leadership after the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, the wars that followed in Gaza and the wider region, and the government's record at home and abroad. Opinion polls indicate that neither the Prime Minister's right-wing bloc nor the opposition is assured of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.

How Israel elects its parliament

Israel, a country roughly the size of Mizoram, uses a nationwide proportional representation system. The entire country is treated as a single constituency electing the 120 members of the Knesset, Israel's parliament.

Voters do not choose individual lawmakers. They vote for closed party lists, a system that allows many parties to compete for seats. A party must cross an electoral threshold of 3.25% to enter the Knesset, a rule that frequently encourages pre-election alliances and mergers.

The Knesset has a four-year term, but elections can be held early if the House votes to dissolve itself, fails to approve the State budget within the prescribed period, or if a new government cannot be formed.

The party with the most seats does not automatically form the government. After the election, the President consults the political factions and appoints a lawmaker to try to form a government. That lawmaker must secure the backing of at least 61 members of the 120-seat House.

The incumbent

Mr. Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud party, has served as Prime Minister for nearly 19 years across three separate periods since 1996. He is seeking to remain in office after a term dominated by the October 7, 2023 attack and the military campaigns that followed.

The Hamas-led assault of that year killed about 1,200 people in Israel and triggered the war in Gaza, which later widened into a broader regional conflict involving Israel, Iran and other armed groups.

Israel responded with a large-scale military campaign in the Gaza Strip, including airstrikes, ground operations and restrictions that severely disrupted civilian life. According to Gaza's health ministry, more than 74,000 Palestinians have been reported killed and over 175,000 injured since the start of the war.

Security and accountability for the October 7 attack are central themes of the campaign. Mr. Netanyahu also faces charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery, which he denies. In 2024, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The challengers

Gadi Eisenkot, a former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defence Forces, leads the centrist Yashar party and has emerged as a principal challenger. He served as an observer in Mr. Netanyahu's war cabinet but resigned in June 2024, criticising the government for lacking a clear war strategy. He has presented himself as an alternative on governance while holding a hard line on security. His party has performed strongly in some opinion polls, though the opposition as a whole faces the difficult task of assembling a viable coalition.

Naftali Bennett, a former Prime Minister, leads the B'Yachad electoral alliance, which includes former Prime Minister Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party. A right-wing politician who opposes Palestinian independence and supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, Mr. Bennett has also criticised Mr. Netanyahu's handling of security and governance. He served briefly as Prime Minister in 2021 under a power-sharing arrangement with Mr. Lapid, and their alliance is among the opposition forces seeking to replace the current government.

Other significant players include Yair Golan's left-leaning Democrats and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu.

With the race closely contested, the outcome is likely to hinge less on any single party's tally than on the post-election bargaining that follows.