IMD predicts below-normal July rain for Kerala, raising alarm over water shortage
The southwest monsoon started on a pleasant note in Kerala, with light spells of rain across the state and no extreme weather. However, June ended with a rainfall deficit of 34%, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for July, deepening concerns among farmers and water managers.
June and July together contribute about 65% of Kerala's annual southwest monsoon rainfall. A deficit in these months raises the possibility of early drought-like conditions unless the shortfall is compensated by an intense revival in August or September.
Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, told The Hindu that July is likely to be another deficient month. The absence of rain-producing systems in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea is creating dry conditions over Kerala after an initial spell in the first week of July.
Although a low-pressure area may form in the Bay of Bengal this week, it is unlikely to bring significant rain to Kerala due to its position. Strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, an unfavourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole have weakened westerly winds, reducing monsoon flow across the state and much of the country.
As of July 1, district-level deficits were severe: Wayanad (-67%), Idukki (-54%), and Palakkad (-41%). These deficits have affected major reservoirs. The combined storage in hydroelectric project reservoirs managed by the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) stood at about 20% of total capacity at the end of June.
The IMD's long-term data shows a declining trend in June monsoon rainfall in Kerala from 1901 to 2026. Over 126 years, June rainfall has decreased at an average rate of 1.4 mm per year, totalling a reduction of about 176 mm. Experts say the erratic nature of the monsoon demands early measures to mitigate climate change impacts, especially during El Niño and La Niña years.
