IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rains for Aug-Sept as El Niño risk persists

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that average rainfall in the country during the second half of the monsoon season (August-September) is most likely to be 'below normal', with the continuing risk of El Niño conditions. This comes despite the relatively better performance of rains in July.

The monsoon is critical for India's agriculture, with about half of the net sown area depending on it. This year, the country entered the season with concerns over El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which is known to suppress monsoon rainfall in India.

Last month, the IMD had forecast below-normal rains in July, citing El Niño's impact. However, the actual rainfall turned out to be normal due to plentiful showers in central India. The department attributed this to what it called 'intra-seasonal variability', noting that a record 24 days in July were influenced by 'low pressure systems' (LPS), against the normal of about 13.5 days.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that four low-pressure systems formed over the Bay of Bengal, leading to good rainfall from Odisha to Gujarat. He acknowledged that these systems were not captured by the long-range forecast model, and further analysis would be needed to understand the reason for the better-than-expected July rains.

Two long wet spells — one during the first week of July and the second from July 22 onwards — helped reduce the overall monsoon rainfall deficit in the country from 35% in June to nearly 13% at the end of July. Since the 'monsoon core zone', where farming operations remain largely rain-fed, coincides mostly with central India, good rains in the region aided the recovery of sowing acreage.

Though the overall acreage of summer-sown crops continues to be in deficit compared with the corresponding period last year, the deficit reduced from nearly 21% on July 3 to around 3% on July 31. This has provided hope to the farm sector in an El Niño year, as crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton are largely dependent on monsoon rains.

The IMD said that during August-September, certain parts of peninsular India, central India, northern parts of northwest India, and east and northeast India may receive 'normal to above-normal' rains. However, this is unlikely to change the overall forecast of 'below normal' quantitative rainfall across the country. The forecast is based on a combination of dynamical and statistical models, with periodic updates issued by the department.

The development assumes significance as a weak second half of the monsoon season could affect the maturation of standing crops and water reservoir levels, even as the earlier good rains have eased initial concerns. The IMD has advised farmers and state authorities to stay prepared for potential dry spells in the coming weeks.