IIA researchers develop 3D model to forecast solar storm impacts
Researchers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA), along with international collaborators, have developed a three-dimensional computer simulation model that can help forecast the arrival and impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) before they reach Earth. These gigantic eruptions of magnetised plasma, hurled from the Sun at millions of kilometres per hour, can damage satellite systems, disrupt power grids, and interfere with global communications when directed toward our planet.
According to the Department of Science and Technology, at the heart of these eruptions lie magnetic flux ropes — twisted bundles of magnetic field lines embedded in the plasma. These are widely regarded as the primary triggers of CMEs. However, how the magnetic energy builds up and is released during these events has remained one of solar physics' most stubborn mysteries, with the violent expulsion process poorly understood until now.
The new 3D model traces, step by step, how the reconnection flux changes as a magnetic flux rope rises, stretches the surrounding ambient magnetic field, and ultimately erupts. The simulation begins with a realistic coronal setup of a solar atmosphere, threaded by a magnetic field configuration resembling a coronal streamer. A twisted magnetic flux rope is gradually introduced from below, mimicking how new magnetic flux emerges from beneath the solar surface.
As the flux rope rises, the overlying magnetic field is significantly stretched and compressed beneath it. The team observed that reconnection does not begin explosively. Instead, it starts quietly with the slow formation of a thin sheet of strong electric current — a layer where opposing magnetic fields are pushed together. Over time, this process intensifies, culminating in the impulsive, large-scale expulsion of the flux rope.
The researchers simulated two successive flux rope eruptions in their model and cross-validated their findings with a researcher from the University of Helsinki, Finland. That collaborator contributed analysis based on observational data from NASA’s Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), two of the most powerful instruments currently observing the Sun.
The study was conducted by Samriddhi Sankar Maity (postdoc at NASA and Georgia State University, U.S.), Piyali Chatterjee of IIA, Ijas S. Mytheen (PhD student, Eotvos University, Hungary), and Ranadeep Sarkar from the University of Helsinki. The findings were published in the Astrophysical Journal. This model represents a significant step toward more accurate space weather forecasting, helping protect satellites, power grids, and communication networks from solar disturbances.
