Coal demand to hit 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030, says government; push for market-driven pricing
India's coal demand is projected to reach 1.6 billion tonnes per annum by 2030, a senior government official said on Friday (August 14, 2026), highlighting the need for transparent and market-driven pricing mechanisms for the commodity.
Speaking at the Global Commodities Conclave in Mumbai, Union Coal Secretary Vikram Dev Dutt said domestic coal production has crossed 1 billion metric tonnes in each of the last two fiscal years, reflecting the country's growing reliance on coal as a mainstay of its energy needs.
"Coal demand is projected to rise further to an estimated 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030," Dutt said, adding that India is at an "inflexion point" where the energy sector is shifting from a scarcity scenario to one of surplus.
This transition underscores the need for "more efficient, transparent and market driven mechanisms for coal trade," he said, noting that state-run Coal India has historically enjoyed a virtual monopoly in the sector.
"While this model did serve its purpose for the time that it was designed, it does not fully reflect the competitive, transparent and efficient price discovery that a market of India's scale and India's maturity deserves," Dutt added.
The government has proposed a 'coal exchange' — an independent marketplace platform designed to facilitate simultaneous bidding by buyers and sellers. According to Dutt, this will provide commercial and captive miners ready and transparent access to a wider market, enabling efficient, competitive and market-driven price discovery.
The exchange is expected to function as a central counterparty for clearing and settlement, thereby improving risk management for both buyers and sellers. Over time, it could also lay the foundation for a derivatives market for coal, he said.
The government plans to operationalise the coal exchange concept "in the months ahead," Dutt said, though he did not share a definitive timeline.
Coal remains a critical component of India's energy mix, even as the country pursues a transition to cleaner sources. The government's approach aims to balance energy security with long-term sustainability goals.
Dutt described the coal exchange as a reform that reflects the government's commitment to ease of doing business, transparency and building a modern self-reliant energy ecosystem. He expressed hope that it will strengthen India's energy security, support industrial growth and contribute to the vision of Viksit Bharat 2047.
The announcement comes amid ongoing global discussions about coal's future and India's efforts to diversify its energy portfolio. While renewable energy capacity has expanded significantly, coal is expected to remain a key part of India's energy infrastructure for the foreseeable future.
Industry experts have welcomed the move towards market-driven pricing, noting that it could improve efficiency and reduce costs for consumers. However, they also caution that a transparent regulatory framework and robust infrastructure will be essential for the exchange to succeed.
