Brazilians vote in tight Lula–Bolsonaro runoff as Latin America's direction hangs in balance

Brazilians began voting on Sunday (October 25, 2026) in a polarising presidential runoff between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, a contest whose outcome will shape Brazil's relations with the United States and the wider political direction of Latin America.

Pre-election polls showed the two candidates in a neck-and-neck race. Under Brazilian election rules, a candidate must secure more than 50 per cent of the valid vote to be declared the winner and take office in January.

Mr. Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, is an ally of US President Donald Trump. Mr. Lula is a left-of-centre veteran who governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and is seeking another term.

Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Mr. Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round earlier this month. More than 33 million of the nearly 160 million eligible voters did not turn out.

The two candidates hold sharply opposing views on issues ranging from US-Brazil relations and climate change to social welfare. A win for Mr. Bolsonaro would mark a pivot to the right by Latin America's most populous country and largest economy, in a year when allies of Mr. Trump have won elections in Chile, Peru and Colombia. A victory for Mr. Lula would leave Brazil and Mexico, the region's second-most populous country led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, with left-of-centre governments.

In many ways, the runoff resembles a rematch between Brazil's two polarised political forces. Four years ago, Mr. Lula defeated Mr. Bolsonaro's father by the narrowest margin since the country returned to democracy in 1985. Polls suggest this election could be even closer.

Cost of living and security

Mr. Lula has faced a difficult re-election campaign amid public concern over the cost of living and security. Mr. Bolsonaro made a tough-on-crime approach the cornerstone of his campaign and has pledged to bring down food prices.

Both candidates have been dogged by corruption suspicions involving family members and political allies. Mr. Bolsonaro's admission that he accepted about $12 million from the former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father's life has cast a shadow over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case. Mr. Lula spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled.

During the campaign, Mr. Lula frequently portrayed Mr. Bolsonaro as a threat to democracy, pointing to the legal troubles of his father, who is under house arrest for attempting a coup. Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to seek amnesty for his father if elected.

The next president will appoint at least three of the 11 Supreme Court justices during the coming term because of scheduled retirements. Mr. Bolsonaro has long criticised the country's top court, which has itself been shaken by a corruption scandal, and has promised to push for judicial reform.

Seeking to attract undecided voters after losing the first round, Mr. Lula has backed a series of costly measures. His government recently endorsed a debt relief programme for small businesses and promised free public transport on weekends. The Senate also approved a government-backed proposal concerning the six-day working week.

US role looms over the vote

Mr. Lula has criticised the US President ahead of the election, warning about the risks of US intervention in Brazilian elections. His remarks followed the Trump administration's imposition of high tariffs on Brazilian exports, sanctions on a Supreme Court justice who chaired the investigation that ended in the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro, and the classification of drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organisations.

With the race this close, the result is likely to rest on turnout and on how undecided voters in Brazil's largest states respond to economic concerns and security promises. Official results are expected after polling stations close on Sunday evening.