Bitcoin Hovers Near $66,800 Resistance as ETF Inflows Slow Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin has recovered approximately 13% from its July 1 low of $57,754 to trade near $65,160 on July 27. The digital asset remains confined within a narrow range of $64,000 to $66,800, leaving investors uncertain whether the rally can sustain beyond the $68,000 level.
The initial recovery was supported by seven consecutive days of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, totalling $999.3 million between July 14 and July 22. However, that momentum reversed as Bitcoin approached resistance. On July 23, ETFs saw net outflows of $225.1 million, followed by $240.1 million on July 24. Net inflows for the week ended at just $33.9 million, limiting Bitcoin's ability to break out decisively.
For a sustained uptrend, Bitcoin must first clear $66,800 and then close convincingly above $68,000, where sellers have repeatedly emerged. The next significant hurdle lies near $69,000 to $69,500, the average acquisition cost for short-term holders. This level could trigger selling from recent buyers looking to recover their capital. On the downside, $64,000 is the immediate support. A break below could pull Bitcoin toward $62,500 to $63,000, with deeper losses revisiting $60,000 and the July low of $57,754.
On-chain data indicates that long-term holders are absorbing supply. As of mid-July, approximately 12.20 million BTC (60.8% of circulating supply) had remained unmoved for over a year, and another 3.55 million BTC (17.7%) had been held for six to twelve months. However, only 53% of supply was in profit, compared to a four-year average of 76%, suggesting many investors who bought at higher prices are still carrying losses.
Altcoin performance has been selective. Ethereum outperformed, rising 3.52% in 24 hours to about $1,945. Solana gained 2.27% but remained down 0.39% for the week. BNB, XRP, and TRON saw modest gains. Bitcoin maintained a dominant market share of 58.6%.
The next major catalyst is the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 28–29. Markets have assigned a 36.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase from the current 3.50%–3.75% range. A rate hike or hawkish commentary could strengthen the US dollar and weigh on Bitcoin, while a pause may support another attempt at $68,000. Oil prices, which have fallen after the US and Iran paused attacks, will also influence the Fed's decision. Brent crude dropped 4.7% to $92.19 on July 27 after briefly exceeding $100. A sustained decline below $100 could ease inflation concerns, but renewed conflict may restore pressure on interest rates and risk assets.
